DC Studios’ Supergirl is heading toward a softer-than-expected debut at the North American box office, with the latest projections suggesting the superhero film could open below the $50 million mark as Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5 looks set to dominate theaters for a second consecutive weekend.
The latest forecasts represent another downward revision for the highly anticipated DC release, raising questions about its commercial momentum ahead of opening day.
Opening Weekend Projections Continue to Decline
Starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, Supergirl begins special fan screenings on Wednesday before Thursday preview showings and a wide release across approximately 3,600 North American theaters on Friday.
Just a few weeks ago, industry tracking suggested the film would debut with around $55 million, according to Deadline. While that figure already trailed the opening of James Gunn’s Superman (2025), analysts viewed it as a respectable launch for the second film in DC Studios’ rebooted cinematic universe.
However, expectations have steadily weakened.
Entertainment journalist Matthew Belloni reported earlier this month that pre-release tracking had slipped to roughly $51 million, citing data from the National Research Group.
Now, with review embargoes lifted, industry estimates have fallen once again.
Deadline projects Supergirl will open in the high-$40 million range, while Variety forecasts a debut between $47 million and $50 million.
Could Open Below The Flash
If those projections prove accurate, Supergirl would open below The Flash, which earned $55 million during its first weekend in 2023 despite ultimately becoming one of Warner Bros.’ biggest superhero disappointments.
The new forecast also places Supergirl in a similar range to The Marvels, Marvel Studios’ 2023 release that opened with $46.1 million, marking the weakest domestic debut in the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
According to Deadline, Supergirl carries a production budget of approximately $170 million, excluding global marketing expenses.
A New Chapter for the DC Universe
Directed by Craig Gillespie, best known for I, Tonya and Cruella, Supergirl is based on a screenplay by feature-film newcomer Ana Nogueira.
Unlike previous big-screen versions of the character, the story follows Kara Zor-El on a darker, space-faring journey driven by revenge after the ruthless Krem of the Yellow Hills, played by Matthias Schoenaerts, attacks an innocent family with devastating consequences.
The film also stars:
- Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El / Supergirl
- Eve Ridley as Ruthye Marye Knoll
- Jason Momoa as Lobo
- David Krumholtz as Zor-El
- Emily Beecham as Alura
- David Corenswet as Clark Kent / Superman
Supergirl marks the second theatrical installment in the rebooted DC Universe overseen by James Gunn and Peter Safran, with Gunn also serving as a producer.
Toy Story 5 Expected to Stay on Top
Standing in Supergirl‘s way is the overwhelming success of Toy Story 5, which delivered the biggest domestic opening weekend of 2026 with $159.6 million during its debut.
After earning more than $200 million domestically and $351 million worldwide through Tuesday, Pixar’s latest animated blockbuster is expected to remain No. 1.
Deadline projects the film will collect between $88 million and $96 million in its second weekend, representing a healthy 40% to 45% decline from its opening.
Variety offers a slightly more conservative estimate of $80 million to $90 million, but even that would comfortably secure another weekend atop the box office.
Directed by Andrew Stanton, Toy Story 5 reunites franchise favorites Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, and Joan Cusack as Woody, Buzz Lightyear, and Jessie.
The film reportedly carried a production budget of $250 million, with marketing costs estimated at an additional $100 million.
Jackass: Best and Last Targets Modest Debut
Also entering theaters this weekend is Paramount Pictures’ Jackass: Best and Last, the latest installment in the long-running stunt-comedy franchise.
The film is expected to open with approximately $10 million to $12 million from around 2,800 North American theaters, according to industry projections.
Produced on a relatively modest $10 million budget, the comedy faces a much smaller financial hurdle than its blockbuster competitors.
A Crucial Weekend for DC Studios
With Toy Story 5 continuing to attract family audiences and Supergirl experiencing weakening pre-release tracking, this weekend could become an important early test for DC Studios’ long-term theatrical strategy.
Although opening weekend numbers are only one measure of success, industry observers will be watching closely to see whether positive audience word of mouth can help Supergirl outperform expectations after its theatrical debut.